Behind the noise of the American election in the fall and the steady drumbeat of confusion and fear caused by COVID, another potential slow-motion disaster has been slowly winding itself into position as 2020 wanes. Brexit has been in English language newspaper headlines so long it’s easy to take them as wallpaper. But as 2020 winds to a close, another round of drama appears to be shaping up.
The sum total of the problem is this: in 2021, the national entity known as the United Kingdom will take an important step in its years-long divorce from the European Union. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met this week to try and an agreement that both sides could live with. The EU wants a fair playing field when it comes to environmental regulations: continental Europe fears a Britain willing to cut regulations to bring down prices, making their products a cheaper alternative to safer, more reliable, yet more expensive European products. There are also some disputes about fishing rights and exactly who will arbitrate disputes between the two parties post-Brexit. The fishing rights appear to be —Brits don’t fish their own fish much, these days—but the right to control waters and regulate that catch could set the tone for the relationship between the two entities.
There’s also a bit of a potential , a green one as it were. The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remains a question of interest to the U.K., to the European Union, to the Republic of Ireland, and to the six counties in the North. It’s even of interest to Irish-American president-elect Joe Biden, who is no doubt cognizant of the fact that many of his presidential forebearers have inserted themselves into that contentious dispute because so many Irish Americans continue to keep an eye on their home country, some who have supported the Irish Republican Army with the money to fund the Irish resistance effort. The UK has backed off its plans for a ‘hard’ border between the U.K. and the E.U. right in the middle of the Irish island, but if the U.K. totters towards a ‘hard’ Brexit, then those promises might be revisited. If those promises are broken, then the return of violence in Northern Ireland appears ever more likely, as the border might reactivate old tensions between Protestant and Catholic paramilitaries. Indeed, there are signs it already has.
The Irish situation also highlights the reality that the more the United Kingdom insists on its own national sovereignty the more that sovereignty will likely dissolve internally. Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, of the Scottish National Party, has insisted that she will call for another referendum of Scottish Independence next year. Scots were only narrowly convinced to remain within the United Kingdom in 2014. Major arguments in the ‘remain in the U.K.’ camp revolved around the U.K.’s relationship to the European Union and the access to health resources that the U.K.’s health care infrastructure provided. The Brits promptly torched their relationship with the E.U. in 2016 and their access to health care resources with it. If Sturgeon succeeds in putting the Scottish independence question to the Scots in 2021, the answer this time might understandably be an enthusiastic ‘yes.’
by Nathan R. Elliott
i. “Brexit is the worst decision of modern times. Why are its critics in cabinet so silent?” The Guardian, Dec 13 2020. 7 mins. Intermediate/ Advanced.
ii. “Brexit trade talks resume, but ‘very large gaps’ remain.” The Globe and Mail, Dec 9, 2020. 6 mins. Intermediate.
iii. “All Fish and No Chips.” The New York Times, Dec 11, 2020. 6 mins. Intermediate/Advanced.
iv. “Brexit Talks: Joe Biden says UK and Ireland must not have hard border.” The Guardian, Nov 25, 2020. 3 mins. Intermediate.
iv. “As Brexit talks falter, the risk of Violence in Ireland is Still Alive.” Foreign Policy, Sept 14. 8 mins. Intermediate/Advanced.
vi. . “Scotland’s Sturgeon hints at legal move if Independence vote blocked.”Reuters, Nov 30, 2020. 3 mins. Intermediate.