The COVID economy has been anything but simple. The economy is hurting because of the pandemic. Well, except for the fact that the stock market is—at least at times—soaring. Unemployment rates are up, food banks are having a difficult time with demand. Well, except for those sectors of the economy that have benefited from the shutdowns. Providing, of course, that another wave of restrictions or rules doesn’t render today’s economic winner tomorrow’s economic roadkill. Oil, to name just one commodity, was trading at a negative price earlier this spring; renewable energy looked , during the summer, to make a killing blow against oil. Upon news of the vaccine? Oil prices surged, but even industry insiders warned that the good times probably wouldn’t last .
Late in this very difficult year of 2020, we find a familiar character entering the stage: Black Friday, or Vendredi Fou, as it is known here in Quebec. It’s the biggest day of the retail calendar in much of the U.S. and Canada. Following the American Thanksgiving holiday, it marks the beginning of the holiday season. Entire fortunes and corporate empires have risen and fallen on their business’ ability to produce revenue and grab market share—money and stats that can be passed on to information-greedy investors. The impact of the pandemic on the center of consumer capitalism’s high holy day, therefore, is of economic interest beyond your ability to get new pajamas on sale at La Vie en Rose. Would shoppers stay at home? Shop online? Brave the virus, and risk catching the virus and spreading it even further?
Some retailers here in Montreal decided on a new strategy, dispersing Black Friday across the entire month of November. Retailers in New York appear to have tried a similar strategy, encouraging curbside pickup for online orders and offering sales across a wider spectrum of time. There were still physical lines in both Canada and the States. Arguably the lines were longer, because shoppers had to keep two meters distance between each other. It will take a week or two to sort out who the real winners and losers were, but early returns suggest that North Americans are going to spend less, not more; however, some people will be able to afford to buy more expensive gifts in lieu of being unable to travel. That’s the good news, or least it is for some. The money, as The New York Times article above, is going to the retail giants like Wal-Mart and Amazon, who have the infrastructure to pull off a spectrum of socially distanced shopping options.
Your local neighborhood shop, in other words, might still be suffering despite the amount of money being spent. A small boutique may not have the flexibility, the infrastructure, or the deep pockets that make playing the long-game possible. Even these generalizations, however, should be taken with a grain of salt. No business appears utterly immune to the next surprise the pandemic brings, and every business could find a silver lining in tomorrow’s headlines.
by Nathan R. Elliott
i. “Montreal Retailers Countdown—and price down—to Black Friday.” Montreal Gazette, Nov 27, 2020. Intermediate, 5 mins.
ii. “Black Friday: Holiday Shopping in a Pandemic.” The New York Times, Nov 27, 2020. Intermediate. 10-12
mins.
iii. “Black Friday Shopping in a Pandemic.” The Globe and Mail, Nov 27, 2020. Beginner. 3 mins.